? Daily Outlook Report – July 2, 2025
For: ES (S&P 500 E-mini) and NQ (Nasdaq E-mini)
Target Audience: Active day traders using NinjaTrader
1. ? Market Overview
- Overnight (Asia/Europe): Asian markets mixed ahead of July 9 U.S. tariff deadline. Tech indices in Asia trended lower, while Europe and U.S. index futures traded flat to slightly higher in cautious trade.
- Macro factors:
- U.S. Senate passed a major tax and spending bill; eyes on the House vote.
- Tariff headlines remain a source of uncertainty for equities.
- Crude inventory data in focus today; oil steady amid OPEC+ discussions.
- Upcoming Events:
- 8:15 AM ET: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (est. 95–105k)
- 10:30 AM ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventory
- Tomorrow: June Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
- Pre-market sentiment: VIX remains below 20 (calm). Futures neutral to slightly bullish. Traders cautious ahead of data and tariff developments.
- Technical context: Indices near record highs; uptrend remains but approaching key resistance zones.
2. ? Technical Levels to Watch
ES (S&P 500 E-mini)
- Overnight High/Low: Within prior day’s range.
- Globex Volume Profile:
- Value Area High (VAH): 4,530–4,540
- Value Area Low (VAL): 4,505–4,515
- Point of Control (POC): ~4,520
- Key Resistance: 4,560
- Key Support: 4,500–4,510
- Notable Gaps: Minor gap from Monday around 4,565; watch for liquidity in the 4,500 area.
NQ (Nasdaq E-mini)
- Overnight High/Low: Tight range near previous session highs.
- Globex Volume Profile:
- Value Area High (VAH): 22,900–22,920
- Value Area Low (VAL): 22,800–22,820
- Point of Control (POC): ~22,870
- Key Resistance: 22,930–22,950
- Key Support: 22,800–22,820
- Gaps: Gap from June 30 at ~22,780 may be tested if volatility spikes.
3. ? Market Sentiment Snapshot
- Sentiment: Retail traders remain bullish with VIX low, while institutional models also show a long skew. This creates risk of a downside move if data disappoints.
- Positioning: Futures are pricing in substantial Fed cuts by year-end. Markets are sensitive to any surprise in jobs or oil data.
4. ? Trade Scenarios & Setups
ES Scenarios
- Bullish continuation above 4,540
Trigger: Positive ADP or tariff clarity.
Entry: Breakout above 4,540.
Targets: 4,560, then 4,585.
Stop: Below 4,530. - Pullback to 4,510–4,520 support
Trigger: Mixed data, lack of momentum.
Entry: Bounce from this zone.
Targets: 4,540–4,550.
Stop: Below 4,505. - Bear trap fade above 4,560
Trigger: False breakout above resistance.
Entry: Short reversal.
Targets: 4,530–4,520.
Stop: Above 4,570.
NQ Scenarios
- Momentum play above 22,920
Trigger: Tech leadership on strong data.
Entry: Breakout above VAH.
Targets: 22,960–23,000.
Stop: Below 22,900. - Retrace and hold at 22,800–22,820
Trigger: Mixed jobs or oil numbers.
Entry: Bounce from VAL.
Targets: 22,900–22,920.
Stop: Below 22,780. - Reversal from gap fill around 22,780
Trigger: Quick washout and reversal.
Entry: Fade off gap fill.
Targets: 22,820–22,850.
Stop: Above 22,800.
5. ? Backtesting / Statistical Edge
Since 2018, ADP misses combined with oil inventory builds have led to an average -0.3% to -0.5% intraday move lower on ES. Use this edge to calibrate risk on scenario #2 if data comes in weak.
? Final Notes
- Mark value area levels (VAH, VAL, POC) and overnight range on your NinjaTrader charts before the open.
- Stay patient around the economic data—let the market react first.
- Focus on execution and risk discipline. No bias, only scenarios and probabilities.
- Trade safe and review your setups after the session!
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