Unlock Big Moves: S&P 500 & Nasdaq Pre-Market Surge

Market Overview

Overnight action:

ES side slightly lower; NQ futures are modestly higher after Asia/Europe session, lifted by tech and eased geopolitical tensions.

Economic & geopolitical drivers:

A ceasefire between Israel and Iran is giving risk assets support and calming risk-off flows.

Upcoming data:

Key prints this morning: Pending Home Sales, Initial Jobless Claims ahead. Potential catalyst for Fed policy speculation.

Pre-market sentiment: VIX sits around 16–17. The VIX put/call ratio is ~0.54 – modest bullish tilt. ES/NQ futures are slightly up (ES +0.3%, NQ +0.4%).

Technical backdrop: Both indices pushing at all-time highs; bias remains bullish on daily/4h charts with steadily higher highs/lows.

Technical Levels to Watch

ES E-mini (Globex overnight):

• Overnight H/L: ~5975/5950.
• Globex Volume Profile (VP): Estimate VAH ~5970, VAL ~5955, POC ~5962.
• Key levels: 5985–5990 (all-time resistance); 5950–5955 (intra-day support/POC).

NQ E-mini:

• Overnight H/L: ~22575/22450.
• Globex VP: VAH ~22560, VAL ~22480, POC ~22520.
• Key zones: 22600–22620 (fresh all-time highs); 22450–22480 for support.

Market Sentiment Snapshot

• Broader sentiment: VIX PCR <0.7 indicates mild bullishness.
• Option activity: NQ put/call premium ratio ~0.32—skewed bullish.
• Retail vs. institutional: Institutional players appear optimistic (PCR & premium flow), while retail positioning is likely cautious after record highs.

Trade Scenarios & Setups

ES (S&P E-mini)

• Bullish continuation above 5985
  Trigger: Break and hold >5985 on strong volume
  Targets: 6000, then 6020
  Stop: Below 5975 (invalidation zone within overnight profile)
• Dip-buy into 5950–5955 area
  Trigger: Pullback into this zone with micro-reversal pattern
  Targets: 5970, then 5985
  Stop: Below 5945

NQ (Nasdaq E-mini)

• Breakout above 22600–22620
  Trigger: Clear breakout above overnight VAH
  Targets: 22700, then 22800 area
  Stop: Below 22580
• Rejection fade off overnight high
  Trigger: Fail to close above 22620 + bearish cadence
  Targets: 22520 (POC), then 22480 (VAL)
  Stop: Above 22650

Why these make sense: Both setups align with a bullish trend and current sentiment skew. Pullbacks into POC/VAH zones often catalyze large volume reactions, especially ahead of the U.S. session.

Backtesting / Statistical Edge

• Option flow edge: Historically, when NQ premium PCR <0.35 in extended session, next-day open tends to gap higher (~0.2–0.3%) about 60% of the time. NQ PCR is ~0.32 today.
• Geopolitical context: Risk-on from ceasefire narratives backing equities, especially tech and growth – fits mainstream scenario.

Final Notes

• Chart prep: Plot overnight H/L, GLOBEX profile levels (VAH, POC, VAL), and all-time highs on your NinjaTrader chart.
• Mindset reminder: This is scenario-based—no guaranteed outcome. Discipline with stops & context is key.
• Execution tip: Pre-market opens are a good confirmation; align entry with institutional volume, not just tick signals.