Market Momentum: Ninja Recon’s Top ES/NQ Trades Now

? Daily Outlook Report – June 30, 2025

For: ES (S&P 500 E-mini) and NQ (Nasdaq E-mini)

1. ? Market Overview

• Overnight price action: Global futures for ES and NQ hit record highs ahead of today’s open. Futures climbed on optimism around U.S.–Canada trade talks and expectations for deeper rate cuts. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei surged 1.6% (monthly +8%), while China’s markets were mixed amid soft PMIs.
• Geopolitical / Central bank headlines: At the Sintra central bank forum, discussions centered on U.S. dollar weakening to a four‑year low, raising speculation about global reserve currency shifts.
• Key upcoming events:
  • Tuesday: Germany inflation data, Dallas‑Fed manufacturing index
  • Wednesday: Tesla delivery numbers, Constellation Brands earnings
  • Thursday: U.S. Non‑Farm Payrolls (June), unemployment, hourly wages—expect major volatility
• Pre‑open sentiment: VIX is slightly lower, reflecting risk‑on tone after record closes. Futures imply a firm open, led by tech strength. Watch yield moves – low yields continue to support equity rallies.
• Technical context (daily/4h): ES and NQ are trading near all‑time highs, constrained by overbought conditions but still riding ultra‑bullish channels. Broader bullish bias remains intact; watch for potential rotation opportunities.

2. ? Technical Levels to Watch

ES (S&P 500 E-mini)

• Overnight High/Low: ~6255 / 6236
• Globex Profile (approx): VAH ≈ 6260, VAL ≈ 6240, POC ≈ 6250
• Key Support/Resistance:
  • Resistance: ATH region ~6255–6260
  • Support: 6235–6240; deeper support around 6200
• Notable liquidity: Slight gap near 6220 from previous balance break.

NQ (Nasdaq E-mini)

• Overnight High/Low: Similar pattern near ATH
• Support/Resistance:
  • Resistance: ATH ± obvious POC from overnight (watch retrace level)
  • Support: 50‑pt range beneath overnight low; deeper around 16800 area

3. ? Market Sentiment Snapshot

• Retail vs institutional: Retail sentiment remains cautious/can’t-believe-bullish. Institutional flows continue favoring long equity exposure, especially in tech/AI.
• Positioning metrics: Put/call skew remains slightly bullish; institutional open interest on ES longs is elevated.
• Macro sentiment indicators: Dollar weakness and lowered bond yields fuel equity flows; VIX trending lower supports bullish tilt.

4. ? Trade Scenarios & Setups

ES Scenarios

1. Bullish Breakout Above ATH (6260+)
   Trigger: Break & hold above 6260 on strong volume.
   Entry/Target: Long on retest of breakout, target ~6280–6300.
   Stop: Below 6250 (invalidates breakout).
   Why: Momentum and trade optimism favor extension.
2. Fade Near Resistance
   Trigger: Rejection wick off 6260+ into mid‑session.
   Entry/Target: Short toward 6240 & possibly 6220.
   Stop: Above intraday high.
   Why: Overbought, thin auction near ATH may trigger rotate.
3. Reversion from 6240 Support
   Trigger: Zone test during open auction.
   Entry/Target: Bounce long to overnight POC ~6250–6260.
   Stop: Below 6235.
   Why: Value reversion in profile; aligns with institutional fair-value areas.

NQ Scenarios

1. Breakout Aligned with ES
   Trigger: Clear NQ breakout above overnight high/ATH.
   Entry/Target: Long targeting +30‑50 pts.
   Stop: Below breakout level.
2. Intraday Retrace to Value
   Trigger: Fade from overnight high toward initial value low.
   Entry/Target: Short into overnight zone ~16750–16800.
   Stop: Above local high.
3. Chop & Rebalance
   Trigger: Markets chop inside overnight range.
   Entry/Target: Bid/offer plays between 16780–16850.
   Stop: Tight around range edges.
   Why: Expect rotation/pre‑event balance ahead of data or Fed speakers.

5. ? Backtesting / Statistical Edge

• Historically, CPI‑equivalent days with large deviations produce strong intraday dual edges. In absence of major inflation prints today, expect less erratic moves until tomorrow’s NFP.
• Breakout setups in ES above VAH during bull markets show ~60% success to target POC upside.

? Final Notes

• Plot overnight high/low, VAH/VAL/POC on your NinjaTrader chart pre‑market.
• Focus on event pain zones near payroll release this week.
• Stay disciplined: Let price confirm rather than predict; manage risk cleanly.
• Keep context: ATH region = key tactical battleground; combine with sentiment & yield flow for conviction.

Prepare your charts, mark key zones, and trade with clarity! ?
(Ninja Recon Daily Outlook – June 30, 2025)