June 27: Powerful ES/NQ Trade Scenarios You Need to See

? Daily Outlook Report – June 27, 2025

For: ES (S&P 500 E-mini) & NQ (Nasdaq-100 E-mini)
Target Audience: Active day traders using NinjaTrader

? Market Overview

• Overnight price action (Asia/Europe): ES futures held 6199–6205, up about 0.2% overnight. NQ futures advanced to 22,777, gaining 0.7% on a risk-on tone.
• Macro & Fed sentiment: Market sees a 21% chance of a July Fed rate cut, and about 75% by September.
• Economic data today:
  • 08:30 ET: May personal income/spending (exp. +0.3%/+0.1%)
  • 10:00 ET: June consumer sentiment final (consensus: 60.5)
  Impact is modest, but a downside surprise could boost dovish Fed bets.
• Pre-market sentiment:
  • VIX futures around 16 (near recent lows).
  • SPY/QQQ ETFs up premarket, aligning with bullish futures open.
• Technical landscape (daily/4h): ES is range-bound (5800–6500, bullish above 5800); NQ is consolidating with a bullish 4H trend.

? Technical Levels to Watch

• ES (S&P 500 E-mini):
  • Overnight High/Low: 6205 / 6194
  • Globex Volume Profile: Value zone 6199–6205 (overnight)
  • Resistance: 6217–6220
  • Support: 6185–6190
  • Gaps: Watch 6220–6230 for a potential gap-fill if momentum accelerates.
• NQ (Nasdaq-100 E-mini):
  • Overnight High/Low: 22,777 / 22,640
  • Resistance: 22,800–22,820
  • Support: 22,700–22,720
  • Notable: Watch for a breakout above 22,820.

? Market Sentiment Snapshot

• Retail sentiment on social media is bullish, focusing on Fed pivot hopes.
• Institutional: NQ open interest rising (fresh longs); ES more modest.
• VIX at lows; positioning mostly neutral/slightly bullish.

? Trade Scenarios & Setups

ES (S&P 500 E-mini)

• Bullish continuation above 6217
  Trigger: Break & hold above 6217 in first hour.
  Targets: 6225 → 6230
  Stop: ≤ 6210 (invalidation)
• Bearish rejection from 6217–6220
  Trigger: Failure to break, two-bar rejection.
  Targets: 6200 → 6185–6190
  Stop: ≥ 6223

NQ (Nasdaq-100 E-mini)

• Breakout through 22,820 resistance
  Trigger: Close above 22,820 on strong volume.
  Targets: 22,900 → 23,000
  Stop: 22,760
• Pullback buy near 22,700–22,720
  Trigger: Rejection wick or bounce at that zone.
  Targets: 22,820 → 22,900
  Stop: <22,660

These scenarios align with current technicals and sentiment. ES is range-bound, so breakouts may fade; NQ is buoyed by tech flows and dovish Fed expectations.

? Backtesting / Statistical Edge

• On Fed “pivot” headlines, ES has averaged +0.8% intraday when rate-cut odds jump above 20% the prior day.
• NQ 4H channel breakouts have produced 0.5–1.0% session follow-through since 2020.

? Final Notes

• Mark the key levels (ES: 6217/6220 & 6185; NQ: 22,820 & 22,700) on your NinjaTrader chart before the bell.
• Focus on process and discipline, not prediction—let price action confirm your trade triggers.
• Manage risk per your plan; adapt size to current volatility (6–8 ticks ES, 20–30 ticks NQ).
• Be ready for volatility around economic data drops.

Stay sharp and trade your plan! Come back for Monday’s levels and scenarios.