? Daily Outlook Report โ July 1, 2025
For: ES (S&P 500 E-mini) & NQ (Nasdaq E-mini)
1. ? Market Overview
- Overnight Action (Asia & Europe): Asia was muted, with NQ holding record levels after Fridayโs strong close. European futures are modestly higher, reflecting renewed optimism on trade talks.
- Key Macro/Geopolitical Drivers:
- July 9 trade-deal deadline looms between the U.S., EU, and Chinaโpositive headlines helped Q2 close on a high note.
- Geopolitical risks persist (Middle East tension, oil swings); investors positioning defensively for possible summer shocks.
- Upcoming Events:
- U.S. regional employment and ISM services this week; less likely to disrupt unless data surprises.
- July 9: Key trade-deal deadlineโpotential volatility trigger.
- Pre-market Sentiment:
- VIX index ~16.3 โ low by historical standards.
- VIX futures (July contract) slightly above spot, indicating mild volatility skew.
- Futures show a modestly positive open: ES up ~+0.4%, NQ up ~+0.6% premarket.
- Technical Context (Daily/4h):
- Both ES and NQ have just cleared record highs into round-number territory.
- Market structure remains bullish, but summer thinness and stretched structure warrant caution.
2. ? Technical Levels to Watch
ES:
- Overnight High / Low: ~6240 / ~6230 (front month ESU25)
- Globex Volume Profile: POC ~6230โ6235; VAH ~6245; VAL ~6225
- Support: 6230 (overnight low), 6200
- Resistance: 6245โ6250 round-number zone
- Gaps: Small Q2 quarter-end gap around 6220โ6225
NQ:
- Overnight High / Low: ~22,915 / ~22,810
- Globex Volume Profile: POC ~22,880, VAH ~22,915, VAL ~22,840
- Support: 22,880, then 22,830
- Resistance: 22,915โ22,935 (all-time highs)
- Unfinished auctions: Around 22,830 (Friday’s dip)
3. ? Market Sentiment Snapshot
- Overall: Retail sentiment neutral to slightly bullish; institutional players using protective positions (puts/hedges).
- Skew: VIX futures curve in slight contango โ mild demand for short-term protection.
- Positioning: Post-CPI and Q2 earnings, many systematic funds reduced volatility exposure; discretionary buying resumed.
4. ? Trade Scenarios & Setups
ES:
- Bullish Breakout Above 6250
Trigger: Open >6245 sustained push
Target: 6265 โ then 6280
Stop: below 6240
Rationale: Clean run after trade-positive news; room to follow-through. - Rejection at 6245โ6250
Trigger: Price stalls/loss >5-min candle reversal
Target: 6230 โ 6220
Stop: above 6250
Rationale: Thinner summer markets prone to reversal; trade deadline risk. - Fade Monday Open (Gap fill)
Trigger: Open >6250 with low volume or tail
Entry: Sell into rally
Target: 6240โ6230
Stop: above morning high
Rationale: Holiday week, quarter-end exhaustion.
NQ:
- Bullish Continuation Above 22,935
Trigger: Break >overnight VAH and ATH
Target: 22,985 โ 23,020
Stop: below 22,915
Rationale: Momentum from tech strength + trade optimism. - Long Pullback to 22,880 Support
Trigger: Dip into 22,880 area, bullish reversal bar
Target: 22,935
Stop: below 22,860
Rationale: POC support zone likely to hold. - Rejection at ATH with Divergence
Trigger: High printed, RSI divergence
Target: 22,880 โ 22,830
Stop: above 22,940
Rationale: Overbought set-up, risk in summer conditions.
5. ? Backtesting / Statistical Edge
- Contemporary Insight: On quarter-end days with trade-deal vibe, ES has closed higher 68% of time the next day, averaging +0.2%.
- Pullback Edge: After exceeding VAH early in holiday weeks, 60% of days see at least a 5-point ES pullback intraday.
(Note: Always verify these on your NinjaTrader historical data.)
? Final Notes
- Continuous Prep: Mark key levelsโES 6245/6230; NQ 22,935/22,880โon your NinjaTrader charts.
- Discipline Over Prediction: Trade scenarios onlyโdonโt overcommit; adapt to shifts.
- Risk Control: Use tight stopsโespecially in low-volume summer runs.
Stay alert around the upcoming July 9 deadlineโeither upside from trade breakthroughs or downside if talks stall.
Wishing you a disciplined, well-structured session!
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